Budget likely to see cut in fiscal deficit target to 4.9-5 pc on higher revenue receipts: ICRA

NEW DELHI — Credit rating agency ICRA estimates the Central government’s revenue receipts will witness an upward revision of INR 1.2 lakh crore in the forthcoming Revised Budget for 2024-25 over the Interim Budget Estimate, while pegging a relatively shallower increase in the revenue expenditure target, largely focused on the rural economy.

The rating agency expects the revenue receipts of the government to increase on the back of a higher RBI dividend and a rise in tax collections.

Consequently, the government is likely to set a fiscal deficit target at 4.9-5.0 per cent for FY2025, vis-a-vis the interim budget target of 5.1 per cent of GDP, without compromising the capital expenditure target of INR 11.1 lakh crore, ICRA said. 

The rating agency is of the view that there is also a high likelihood of reducing the net market borrowings for FY2025 by INR 350-550 billion vis-à-vis the interim budget estimate of INR 11.8 lakh crore, which would augur well for yields, along with the demand boost for government securities (G-secs) owing to their inclusion in the J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index.