The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly Elections: A Shift in Political Dynamics

The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections have marked a defining moment in the state’s political evolution, with the BJP-led Mahayuti securing a landslide victory that has reshaped the electoral landscape. Winning 132 of the 149 seats BJP contested in the powerhouse state. Together with its partners Shiv Sena and NCP, the ruling Mahayuti alliance could win 228 of the 288 seats in the state, leaving the Congress-Shiv Sena(UBT)-NCP(SP) tie-up virtually decimated with just 47 seats.

This triumph is not only a reflection of the BJP’s strategic political manoeuvring but also of Maharashtra’s changing socio-political fabric. The alliance’s success transcends mere numbers, signalling a profound shift in voter behaviour and political dynamics in one of India’s most politically diverse states. The elections reveal the power of adaptability, welfare-driven narratives, and organisational discipline in reshaping the state’s electoral outcomes, moving away from traditional caste-based politics to a broader, unified Hindutva-centric coalition.

The Mahayuti’s electoral strategy showcased a remarkable realignment of caste-based politics, prioritising the interests of OBCs, Dalits, and non-Marathas, while strategically downplaying the contentious issue of Maratha reservation. By focusing on these socially diverse groups, the alliance neutralised potential sources of division and presented itself as an inclusive force. Grassroots mobilisation, led by the RSS, ensured that the BJP’s message resonated across the state, including in remote constituencies. Welfare schemes such as the “Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana” were pivotal in engaging rural women and economically weaker sections, demonstrating the alliance’s focus on social welfare as a powerful electoral tool. The use of data-driven voter segmentation allowed the Mahayuti to target specific demographics effectively, making the campaign both comprehensive and nuanced.

Devendra Fadnavis’ administrative image, combined with the national influence of Prime Minister Modi, provided the Mahayuti with a dual appeal: governance and ideological unity. The campaign’s narrative, emphasising stability and progress, resonated strongly with an electorate that increasingly values effective governance over identity politics. The alliance’s emphasis on job creation, infrastructure development, and the empowerment of young voters underscored its appeal to a generation eager for economic and social progress. Outreach strategies, including door-to-door campaigns and digital media engagement, reinforced this message, ensuring that the Mahayuti’s vision reached across Maharashtra.

In stark contrast, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) struggled to present a coherent alternative. The alliance, comprising Congress, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray faction), and the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), was plagued by ideological incoherence and internal strife, particularly following Ajit Pawar’s defection. Leadership disputes further exacerbated the MVA’s weaknesses, leaving it unable to effectively challenge the BJP’s well-crafted narrative. The absence of a charismatic, pan-state leader prevented the opposition from presenting a unified front. Furthermore, the MVA’s reliance on traditional caste-based politics faltered in the face of the Mahayuti’s broader, more inclusive coalition, which aligned local issues with the larger Hindutva vision.

The BJP also displayed remarkable adaptability in neutralising the opposition’s attempts to mobilise key voter blocs. By reframing the Maratha quota agitation as a potential disruption to OBC empowerment, the Mahayuti disarmed one of the opposition’s strongest tools for voter mobilisation. Additionally, the alliance effectively engaged first-time voters, who felt increasingly disconnected from traditional political narratives, through targeted policies and direct outreach. The opposition, on the other hand, failed to address key urban challenges like digital infrastructure, pollution, and women’s safety, which further eroded their support in metropolitan areas.

Despite its triumph, the Mahayuti faces significant challenges in managing its coalition dynamics. Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar, both leaders with substantial regional influence, will likely push for prominent roles in the government. Balancing these demands without causing internal friction will be a delicate task for the BJP. Furthermore, the government will need to address longstanding issues such as rural indebtedness, unemployment, and urban infrastructure deficits. These challenges require long-term, sustainable solutions that go beyond the populist rhetoric that has dominated the election campaign. How the Mahayuti handles these issues will be crucial to its political future.

The heavy reliance on welfare populism, while instrumental in securing electoral success, raises concerns about fiscal sustainability. Maharashtra’s economy, already burdened by substantial debt, could face further strain if the government’s ambitious welfare schemes are not matched by effective revenue-generation strategies. Additionally, the rising aspirations of Maharashtra’s youth, who are increasingly attuned to global opportunities, demand a shift toward governance that prioritises long-term economic development over short-term welfare programs. Balancing these competing demands will be key to ensuring the Mahayuti’s continued success and political stability.

For the opposition, the 2024 elections serve as a wake-up call. The MVA must invest in rebuilding its organisational structure, especially in rural constituencies, and craft a vision that goes beyond merely opposing the BJP. Strengthening grassroots networks, recruiting dynamic young leaders, and directly addressing issues affecting both urban and rural voters will be essential for the MVA’s revival. The lack of a unifying, charismatic leader remains a significant vulnerability, and the alliance must focus on leadership rejuvenation if it hopes to regain public trust and political relevance.

The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections are a turning point in the state’s political trajectory. The BJP-led Mahayuti has redefined the political landscape, moving beyond traditional caste-based politics and building a broad coalition rooted in Hindutva and welfare-driven governance. The alliance’s ability to align local policies with national aspirations has resonated deeply with voters, signalling a shift in how politics is conducted in Maharashtra. Whether this marks a permanent realignment or a temporary phase will depend on the Mahayuti’s ability to deliver on its promises while maintaining internal stability.

Ultimately, the results of this election underscore the transformative power of strategic vision, narrative control, and grassroots mobilisation in reshaping Maharashtra’s political future. The evolving landscape offers valuable insights into how regional politics are adapting to changing socio-economic realities, making this election not just a state-level phenomenon but a significant moment in the broader narrative of India’s democratic evolution.

Dr. Aniruddha Babar, Dept of Political Science, Tetso College, Nagaland